203. N.P.Shmelev, V.P.Fedorov. Threats and Forecasts (the issue of adequacy). Reports of the IE RAS, № 203, М., 2007.

 Annotation

The authors believe that one cannot forecast the future of Russia by its gross product, i.e. based on what's been achieved so far. One should forecast the country's future by threats, arranged in accordance with the degree of their severity. GDP can and should be calculated for the future prospective, one cannot do without it, it is necessary both as is and for calculation of other indicators - labour productivity, economy structure etc. But the country's destiny is not determined by GDP, it is subject to the ability of its people to survive. And had the threat forecasting approach been used in proper time, the Soviet Union would have still existed today.

The authors believe that this methodology can be applied to forecasting the international life as well. For this reason they use the complicated relations between the European Union and Russia as their research subject in this publication.